Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
